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are Bloomberg trade estimates for the March 31 USDA report. USD was very strong, WTI crude trimmed earlier declines, and US equities pared losses, by the time US agriculture markets closed. Grains started and ended the day higher on Black Sea exportable supply
concerns and short covering. Russia export headlines spilled over into the soybean oil market, triggering short covering in the soybean complex.
The selloff earlier in the week for the soybean complex was overdone, INO. Private exporters reported sales of 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. 


estimates of this evening




Description automatically generated


Weather Inc.


  • Pakistan
    and northern India will be impacted by rain over the next few days raising concern for winter wheat quality and perhaps a few other crops
    • The
      moisture will be welcome, though, for early cotton planting that occurs in April and May
  • North
    Africa is still advertised to be dry or mostly dry during the next ten days
    • Crop
      moisture stress is high in the drier areas of Tunisia, interior northeastern and northwestern Algeria and in a few Morocco locations
    • Production
      cuts will be greatest in Tunisia this year relative to that of last year
  • Flood
    potentials remain high for the Red River Basin of the North and the upper Mississippi River basin in April when significant warming occurs to induce aggressive snowmelt
    • Planting
      delays are possible in both of these areas this spring because of the anticipated flood water
    • Additional
      rain and snow will move through the region during the second half of next week resulting in another 0.25 to 0.75 inch of moisture with several inches of additional snow likely in the north
  • Much
    less precipitation is expected in the Red River Basin of the North through the first part of next week coming week while temperatures continue quite cold relative to normal
    • The
      drier conditions will be welcome, but until warmer weather arrives and the region’s deep snowpack melts there will not be much celebrating over the drier weather.
  • U.S.
    lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will be wetter biased over the next ten days resulting in delays to spring planting and general fieldwork
  • Southwestern
    U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are unlikely to get much precipitation during the next ten days
    • Central
      portions of the Plains (i.e., Nebraska, northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado) will get some rain and snow into the weekend offering some short term benefits to topsoil  moisture
  • West
    Texas precipitation potentials are very low for the next ten days
  • South
    Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend region may get some rain next week, but confidence is low
  • World
    Weather, Inc.’s Trend Model along with the CFS and GFS Ensemble models are all hinting at improved Texas and Oklahoma rainfall during April
  • California’s
    heavier precipitation events should be winding down, although light precipitation may continue to come and go periodically
    • Flooding
      in California later this spring could be significant in a few areas as water reservoirs reach full capacity warranting a spillage of water through dams as mountain snow melt reaches the storage facilities
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will continue drier than usual especially in the interior southwest where there is need for significant precipitation this spring in order to support planting and early crop development.
  • Argentina’s
    greatest rainfall Thursday shifted to the northwest impacting Santiago del Estero and Salta more than any other crop area
    • Favorable
      drying occurred in most other areas
  • Argentina
    will see additional bouts of rain in the central and north through the next ten days and southern areas should turn wetter again in the last days of March and early April
    • Crop
      improvements are occurring, although production recover is unlikely except in a few of the late soybeans and peanut crops
  • Brazil
    rainfall has become sporadic and light allowing much of the nation to dry out in favor of all kinds of fieldwork.
    • Late
      season soybean harvesting should be advancing swiftly
  • Northwestern
    Russia continues to experience snowmelt and significant runoff
    • Rain
      is expected to develop during the weekend and last through most of next week resulting in some significant additional runoff that may worsen flooding that may already be under way
  • China
    rainfall over the next ten days will be greatest in the southern half of the Yangtze River Basin and southern coastal provinces benefiting rapeseed development and early season rice planting
    • Additional
      rain totals of 3.00 to 8.00 inches may occur near and south of the Yangtze River reaching into Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang
    • Limited
      precipitation in the lower Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will leave some wheat areas in need or greater precipitation especially in April
  • Cool
    temperatures are expected in eastern China over the next several days which may help to slow drying rates in winter wheat areas of the north and conserve soil moisture in the south
    • Warming
      is expected next week and into the following weekend
  • Northeastern
    Europe will turn cooler next week, and precipitation will increase in the north and west-central parts of the continent as well
    • Eastern
      Spain will remain one of the driest areas in the continent for a while and temperatures will be warmer than usual throughout the next ten days possibly threatening dryland winter crops and some of the planting of spring crops
  • West-central
    Africa precipitation will be erratically distributed over the next few days, but it may next week
    • Recent
      precipitation has been lighter than usual and temperatures warmer biased raising some concern over crop development
    • Rain
      later this week into next week will be very important for coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane
  • Australia
    rainfall resumed recently near and east of the Great Dividing Range and it will continue into next week
    • Temperatures
      will continue warmer than usual this week and then trend a little cooler this weekend and next week – at least in eastern crop areas
    • The
      bulk of summer crop areas are located farther inland and should not be seriously impacted by much rain
  • Mexico
    is still dealing with a winter drought and there is need for precipitation to support corn, sorghum and cotton in unirrigated areas
    • There
      is also need for moisture in some citrus and sugarcane areas, although the situation for these two crops is not critical outside of the far northeast part of the nation
  • Central
    America rainfall will be greatest in Guatemala and from Costa Rica to Panama during the next ten days
    • Net
      drying is likely in Honduras and Nicaragua
  • Drought
    continues a concern in Canada’s southwestern Prairies
    • Some
      snow fell earlier this month in a part of the drought region, but snow water equivalents were not great enough to offer a tremendous improvement, although some benefit did occur as the snow melted
    • Not
      much precipitation of significance will occur in the dry areas over the next week, although some light precipitation will be possible infrequently
    • Greater
      precipitation may occur in the last days of March and early April
  • South
    Africa crop weather has been very good this year, although the nation is drying out now
    • Early
      season maturation and harvesting should go well
    • Late
      season crops will need some beneficial moisture later this season
      • Rain
        prospects on fair over the next ten days, but the precipitation should be erratic and often lighter than usual
  • Southeastern
    Canada’s corn, wheat and soybean production region is favorably moist and poised for a good start to spring, although fieldwork is still a few weeks away
  • Turkey
    will receive frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days bolstering soil moisture for wheat development and rice and cotton planting
    • Portions
      of the nation are already wet after weekend rain and mountain snow
    • Other
      spring planting will benefit from the coming moisture boost
  • Other
    areas in the Middle East will also experience a boost in precipitation
    • Syria,
      northern Iraq and much of Iran will receive significant rainfall as will some areas in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan
  • Improving
    soil moisture throughout the Middle East is improving rice and cotton planting prospects (among other crops) and winter wheat conditions are improving
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be light to locally moderate most days through the coming week
    • Weather
      conditions in the next ten days should be mostly good for the nation, although the south may eventually turn quite wet
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall will occur abundantly during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and no area experiencing much net drying
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will receive very little rain of significance through Sunday, but a notable boost in rain may occur in the last days of this month
  • Eastern
    Africa precipitation is expected to scatter from Tanzania to Ethiopia over the next ten days
    • The
      moisture will be good for ongoing crop development
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was 0.08 and it was expected to move erratically over the coming week

World Weather, INC.


World Weather, INC.


Ag calendar

March 24:

  • Marine
    Insurance London conference
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop conditions reports
  • US
    poultry slaughter

March 27:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am

March 28:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

March 29:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Coffee,
    rice and rubber exports from Vietnam

March 30:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    hogs & pigs inventory, 3pm

March 31:

  • US
    prospective planting data for several crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, barley and rice, noon
  • USDA’s
    quarterly stockpiles data for corn, soybeans, wheat, barley and sorghum
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
  • Malaysia’s
    March palm oil export data
  • US
    agricultural prices paid and received, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI