FI Evening Grain Comments 03/09/23

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Private
exporters reported sales of 184,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Choppy
wide trading range with most agriculture commodities on the defensive on weak exports and traders looking for a normal US spring planting season. Recent precipitation across the US is beneficial ahead of US corn and soybean planting season.

 

Weather

US
CPC latest ENSO discussion

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

 

 

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE DAY

• North
  Africa remains too dry and needs rain in interior Tunisia, northeastern Algeria (away from the coast) and in a few areas of northwestern Algeria and northeastern Morocco
• Not
  much rain is expected for at least ten days and perhaps longer resulting in more crop stress as seasonal warming evolves
• India’s
  rainfall in the coming week will be too little, too late, for many winter crops
• A
  boost in precipitation late next week and into the following weekend may be good for late season crops especially in quality
• Rice
  and late season pulses may benefit most
• Greater
  rain advertised for central and eastern Argentina after March 15 would be good for improving soil moisture, but many summer crops are too far advanced to benefit much.
  
• Late
  season crops that have received some periodic rain will benefit most from the rain
• Rio
  Grande do Sul, Brazil and some neighboring areas will be drying out over the next ten days
• A
  new round of crop stress is likely which may impact soybeans more than corn because the corn is already far advanced and already drought damaged
• Rice
  maturation and harvesting in the state should advance well in the dry environment, although production is down because of dryness this year
• Rain
  will fall frequently in other Brazil crop areas benefiting planted Safrinha crops and late full season crops most
• The
  precipitation will keep soybean harvesting and late season Safrinha planting advancing poorly in some areas
• Europe
  weather is turning more active over the next ten days with France, Germany and the U.K getting a notable boost in precipitation and soil moisture
• The
  change should improve water supply and long term soil moisture for use this spring
• Eastern
  Europe and the western CIS will also see a boost in precipitation this weekend through next week maintaining or inducing moisture abundance in those areas
• Drought
  remains a concern in Norway, eastern Spain and the lower Danube River Basin
• Rain
  in France and Germany will improve river and stream flow and some water supply, although the wet bias needs to last for a while to fully restore water reservoirs
• Central
  through southeastern Queensland, Australia rainfall is evolving and will  produce another 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain and locally more by early next week
  
• Some
  rainfall was beginning increase in central Queensland Wednesday and early today
• Southwestern
  Queensland and New South Wales will also receive a few showers, but resulting rainfall will not be enough to counter evaporation resulting in additional net drying.
  
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin and areas southward into to a part of the coastal provinces will receive periodic rain
  
• Moisture
  totals will vary from 0.75 inch to more than 4.00 inches over the next ten days
• Northern
  and eastern most parts of the Yangtze River Basin will be driest with some areas getting less than 0.75 inch resulting in net drying
• Other
  areas in China will continue drier biased with temperatures well above normal this week and more seasonably warm this weekend into next week
• China’s
  bottom line will be mostly good for those rapeseed areas that get moisture, but net drying is likely in most other areas and the warmer weather this week will stimulate aggressive new crop development in rapeseed areas and greening in wheat areas to the north
• Canada’s
  southern Prairies will get some welcome snow this weekend
• Accumulations
  of 2 to 8 inches will result in Saskatchewan and a part of Manitoba while lighter snowfall occurs elsewhere
• Once
  the snow melts this spring it should help to moisten the topsoil
• Central 
  parts of the Prairies have been snow free for an extended period of time and soil moisture is low in many areas
  
• Two
  more waves of snow will move through the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest through the weekend
• The
  snow event today and Friday was further reduced for the Red River Basin and uppermost Mississippi Valley overnight
• Snowfall
  of 1 to 3 inches is now expected with a few counties in eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota into Iowa getting 3 to 8 inches
  
• Another
  wave of snow will fall in the northern Plains and upper Midwest this weekend with 3 to 9 inches expected from northern and eastern North Dakota into Minnesota
  
• Some
  of the weekend snow may extend southeast into a part of the Midwest, as well
• Flood
  potentials are still rising for the Red River Basin of the North and in a part of the upper Mississippi River Basin; however, most of the moisture will help improve water levels on the Mississippi River and will improve soil conditions for spring planting
  once the ground firms up
• Some
  of the moisture will help end drought conditions
• Flooding
  is not a sure thing – much will depend on how it snow melts and whether significant rainfall occurs while it is melting
• A
  gradual melting will limit flood potentials
• A
  North America weather pattern trend change is expected next week with a northwesterly flow pattern expected in Canada and the north-central through the northeastern U.S.
  
• This
  change should squelch the frequent precipitation pattern in the northern Plains and upper Midwest – at least for a while
• Three
  areas of abundant U.S. precipitation are expected in the coming week to ten days
• Central
  and northern California through the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon will see abundant to excessive precipitation again
• Some
  of the mountainous locations already have snow water equivalents in the snow of 1.5 to more than 2.0 times normal
• The
  southern Sierra Nevada may get 30-70 inches of snow over the next two days possibly setting a record and possibly raising the potential for avalanches
• Northern
  Plains and upper Midwest will be wetter than usual as will a part of the Great Lakes region
• The
  northern and central Delta and Tennessee River Basin into Georgia will also be wetter than usual over the next week to ten days
• West
  and South Texas, the Texas Coastal Bend and northeastern Mexico will continue to receive restricted rainfall and remain in a drought
• Greater
  rain is needed and may evolve next week, though any precipitation next week is expected to be light and yet welcome
• Philippines
  rainfall will be light to locally moderate most days through the coming week
  
• Weather
  conditions in the next ten days should be mostly good for the nation
• Indonesia
  and Malaysia rainfall will occur abundantly during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and no area experiencing much net drying
• Mainland
  areas of Southeast Asia will receive very little rain of significance for a while which is normal for this time of year
• South
  Africa weather will be favorably mixed during the next two weeks with alternating periods of rain and sunshine likely
• Similar
  conditions occurred during the weekend, although more drying than rain was noted
• West-central
  Africa showers increased recently, but additional rain is needed and expected over the next ten days
• Resulting
  rainfall will be good for coffee and cocoa flowering and for sugarcane development and rice planting
• Greater
  rainfall may still be needed in some areas
• Recent
  temperatures have been heating up, but that is not unusual prior to the start of seasonal rainfall, but it has been stressful for some coffee and cocoa producing trees
• Middle
  East precipitation is expected to be erratic with some areas getting heavier rain than others
• Iraq
  and Iran will receive greater rain in this coming week and the change will be welcome for winter wheat development and eventual cotton planting
• Eastern
  Africa precipitation will be greatest in Tanzania during the next ten days which is not unusual at this time of year
• Some
  rain is expected to develop in Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya over time, although amounts should be light
• Eastern
  Mexico and portions of Central America will receive rain during the next ten days
• The
  precipitation will be most organized in Central America with Costa Rica and Panama wettest, but some areas in western Honduras, northwestern Nicaragua and Guatemala this weekend into next week
  
• Moisture
  totals may be enough to stimulate premature coffee flowering and that potential event should be closely monitored
• Most
  likely the advertised rain is overdone and will be reduced in future forecast model runs.
  
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +7.77 and it was expected to move erratically lower over the coming week

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
March 9:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases data on production, yield and area for corn and soybeans

Friday,
March 10:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• Coffee
  festival in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

USDA
export sales

USDA
reported a net reduction of 23,200 tons for 2022-23 soybeans and 172,300-ton increase for new-crop sales for the week ending March 2. 2022-23 soybean sales included many switching around for several countries and a net reduction for unknow of 307,600 tons
and Pakistan reduction of 132,000 tons. Soybean meal sales were good at 319,800 tons old crop and 110,000 tons new crop. Philippines, Morocco, and Columbia were primary buyers. Soybean oil sales improved to 7,300 tons. US corn export sales were 1.412 million
tons, well up from 598,100 tons previous week. Major countries included Japan (469,000 MT, including decreases of 94,800 MT and 101,700 MT – late), South Korea (377,900 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,700 MT),
unknown destinations (201,300 MT), and Mexico (130,900 MT). Sorghum sales were 155,300 tons and were all for China. Pork sales were 22,100 tons. All-wheat sales of 266,700 tons were slightly above the previous week, and new-crop of 70,000 tons compare to 16,800
tons previous week. Increases were primarily for China (137,000 MT, including 130,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (87,000 MT), and the Philippines (77,300 MT, including decreases of 2,200 MT).

 

 

 

Macros

101
Counterparties Take $2.230 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op. (prev $2.193 Tln, 102 Bids)<