The Dec contract is much stronger this morning with weather shifting cooler over the weekend. The current outlook now takes forecast cooler than normal past Nov 11th as the HDDs piled on this weekend.

Here are the changes from Friday.

This latest pattern projections takes the forecast well above normal TDD levels for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period. The current NOAA weather outlook updates directly here:



Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.83 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop in production this weekend comes across multiple regions – NE, Midcon, and Texas.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 78.2 Bcf today,  +3.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 17.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.9 Bcf today. Sabine feedgas volumes pushed higher this past weekend after the completion of the NGPL pipe maintenance.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.2 Bcf today. Canadian have been much lower than normal with NWPL and GTN pushing less into the US.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +79 Bcf today.

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